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Catergory Archive for ‘Uncategorized’ at Mom Talks Real Estate

Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category Page 5 of 7



Is an Appraisal Only as Good as the Appraiser?

An appraisal is a judgement of value (says Webster’s Dictionary), thus a major limiting factor is the judgement of the person performing the appraisal. 

This week’s news about the lawsuit against EAppraiseIt.com and the bills in Congress to set standards for appraisers nationally has brought up the questions of “Who does these appraisals?, Who benefited from the accuracy (or inaccuracy)? How were they performed? For what purpose? The answers might affect our confidence as investors, as buyers, sellers and borrowers.

The lawsuits and new bills in Congressional committees seem to be most concerned about investors in securitized mortgages (mortgage backed securites are currently out of favor with the stock market) and investors in banking institutions.  They do not seem to be concerned with the ordinary homebuyer or mortgage borrower.

The Appraisal Institute, the trade organization for professional appraisers, describes itself as an organization with 22,000 members.  The members appraise residential, commercial, retail, farms, office buildings, land, etc.  As professionals, they earn professional fees for often complex appraisals. 

Were professional appraisers used for the appraisals in the EAppraiseIT lawsuit?  Or was money saved by not always demanding the full professional appraisal? What standards were used for the 262,000 appraisals in the lawsuit? What type of appraisal does your bank, online lender, mortgage broker, etc. use when evaluating the loan for your purchase?

Sometimes the lenders decide not to perform a full fledged appraisal and authorize a Broker Price Opinion instead. Several companies are in this business, utilizing a computer driven model and a licensed real estate agent (or their assistant) to determine market value.  Are there safeguards in place to evaluate the qualifications of the evaluators or just the final products?  Some of the answers will come to light in the lawsuits.

And then there is Zillow. It provides a “zestimate” of a home value anywhere in the United States. Although disclaimers state that their figures might be off by as much as 45%, some ignore the disclaimers. It is a well advertised consumer site, and is often visited.  The main problem is that the sources of its data are sometimes outdated or inaccurate. (Although some of the same sources are  used as a basis of the Broker Price Opinion, BPOs usually have a real person verifying them).  As time goes on Zillow will have more updates and verifications and will improve. 

In my opinion, competence counts!  When you depend on information to make an important decision, in this case, financial, look to the people (or entity) that provide it when you decide how much risk is at stake. It appears that New York, investors, and our Congress are taking a better look.

How Banks and Wall Street will affect our local housing markets

Because Wall Street was the ultimate financier of the subprime and other risky mortgages, when they decided to no longer provide funds to buy these loans in huge packages, that segment of the housing loan market dried up almost overnight.

Repurchase agreements were part of the sales agreements of the loans. Thus, if a borrower was late in paying on their loan or stopped paying, the mortgage company originating the loan was required to buy it back. Since the mortgage companies did not have the credit lines or funds to buy even a small volume of non-performing loans back (2-7%), over 100 companies closed their doors or filed bankruptcy.

So what happened to the investors who had bought these loans? Do they lose all their money or get the security for the loans or what? The government “bailouts” discussed are not for the homeowner, they are for the large institutional or securities investor. It doesn’t look like there will be a bailout; it doesn’t look like there will be new high risk instruments for Wall Street investors. Thus doom and gloom in the media, less money for loans, scared buyers and a stagnant market.

New ideas were announced today wherein banking institutions will provide funds so that the mortgage backed securities market will have investor confidence.

How will this affect our local housing markets? With more stability in the mortgage market, more funds will become available to borrowers to fund their housing purchases or refinances. The loans may be at higher interest rates because the interest rates will be related to risk. There might even be more use of private mortgage insurance (which can add .375-.5% to the basic interest rate).

With the stabilization of the lending products, more buyers will have the confidence to proceed with their loans, thus start buying again. After all, the best time to buy is in a “buyer’s market”.

What Has Changed This Year?

On February 21 of this year, I was quoted on Bloomberg News. What has changed in the residential housing market since then?

Wall Street(basically the huge high risk mortgage backed securities hedge funds)decided to get out of the home mortgage market. Sub prime lenders were forced out of business because their funding from Wall Street closed down. Thus, people with no down payment and poor credit could no longer obtain loans. Since the homes in the lower ranges were not easily selling, owners could not use their equity to buy another property, consumer confidence dropped, and the market slowed.

Next, the “Perfect Storm” week of August 20. Banks and savings & loans stopped making 100% loans and raised interest rates for loans originated by mortgage brokers. Some loan commitments were withdrawn, or terms changed, just prior to closing, pricing marginal borrowers out of the market.

Since August 25. Buyers have been reluctant to make commitments on a purchase, expecting that prices and interest rates will be more advantageous in the future. Meanwhile, rents have increased. Also, mortgage companies have been laying off employees because of reduced numbers of sales (will it take longer to get loans?). True to expectations, since less money is being loaned out, rates and terms have softened.

Today, the media reports that prices on housing will drop and buyers will postpone purchases until prices drop further. Experts in stocks, bonds, securities and foreign markets continue to be quoted in the media on what the housing market will do without identifying their credentials (MFR Securities are consultants to large banking institutions; Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital is a specialist in foreign markets and securities and international investing) Continued housing doom and gloom should cause interest rates to drop, stock market to rise and the dollar to fall against the Euro and other major currencies.

These “experts” should also remind us that, in residential housing, historically, when mortgage rates drop, prices go up. And, when mortgage rates go up, prices drop? So, which will it be?